NCAA Tournament

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NCAA Tournament

Postby johnf » March 18th, 2014, 1:14 pm

We do a thing at work where you pick 10 teams and you get 1 point per game they win multiplied by their seed.

So the teams that you want are something like a 3-4 seed that makes a title run, a 7-8 seed that makes the final four or a 12+ seed that wins a game or two.

Any dark horse type picks?

Right now I am looking at UNC, SFA, New Mexico, NDSU, Nebraska, Michigan State, Louisville, and Connecticut. So obviously I need 2 more and I am willing to be talked out of any of these 8.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby luke646 » March 18th, 2014, 1:53 pm

I've got Creighton (3) in my final four. I really like Dougie McBuckets.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby DustinM » March 18th, 2014, 1:57 pm

Wouldn't really shock me to see Okie St. Win a couple. Smart could also flip out and cost them their first game too.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby JRBoulevard_KC » March 18th, 2014, 2:23 pm

Definitely don't sleep on Creighton, Louisville, and Michigan St. I have the Xavier/NC state winner beating st Louis. Keep North Dakota state also. Harvard has alot of backers too.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby JRBoulevard_KC » March 18th, 2014, 2:24 pm

luke646 wrote: I really like Dougie McBuckets.


If they make the elite 8/final 4, he could wind up the 2nd all time leading scorer in NCAA history! Craziness...
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby theisti » March 18th, 2014, 2:34 pm

I use this site a bunch:

http://kenpom.com/

Also, Nate Silver and crew doing work:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby patrick » March 18th, 2014, 3:19 pm

Since I'm a nerd, here's a spreadsheet that might help you. I used the data theisti linked and the rules of your pool. This is the teams ordered by expected value of points in your pool. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AihIIiQYyKx6dFBFdEw5Mk5aMTJTUUVFWnBRRGVENWc&usp=sharing

Edit: changed the spreadsheet. It made no sense for any play-in games to count.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby thomas15 » March 18th, 2014, 8:41 pm

The top 4 on Patricks spreadsheet are teams I could get behind.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby johnf » March 19th, 2014, 8:07 am

Thanks guys!

It's only $10 per ballot so I'll probably play one with the top ten teams per Nate Silver that Patrick was nice enough to calculate me and another based on the Pomeroy rankings (which by eyeballing it should be at least somewhat different) and we'll see who wins.
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Postby johnf » March 20th, 2014, 10:40 am

So the Nate Silver team is:

Louisville, Kentucky, Michigan St., Ohio St., Pittsburgh, Connecticut, North Carolina, Oklahoma St., Baylor, UCLA

and I forgot to mention there is also a bonus for picking the winner. I went with the team projected most likely to win (duh) Louisville.

The Pomeroy team, I basically psuedo seeded the tournament the way it would be seeded by the Pomeroy rankings and no other constraints. I then calculated the difference between the true seed and the psuedo seed and ranked the teams that way. This included Iowa who lost last night so I obviously didn't use them. This gets me:

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Michigan St., Harvard, Louisville, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., VCU, Duke.
The #1 rated Pomeroy team was Arizona so I picked them for the tournament winner spot.

This is kinda like a high variance version of the team above. Higher ceiling with a lower EV and lower floor.

The organizer just sent out a list of everyone's picks. I am in trouble if SFA makes a run, a lot of people reached with them. The other big #12 pick was Harvard but I have them in one of my lists. Tons of Nebraska too but about half the people here went to school there.
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